2awareness Phase

Awareness Phase

The asset begins attracting attention from more sophisticated investors and early financial media coverage. Prices rise more noticeably, and a compelling narrative starts to form. Valuations stretch but can still be justified with optimistic assumptions.

Warning Signals
  • Increasing media coverage
  • Rising analyst price targets
  • Growing retail interest
  • Emergence of a compelling narrative
  • Valuations stretch but defended
Common Mistakes to Avoid
  • Confusing awareness with mania
  • Over-allocating too early
  • Ignoring valuation metrics entirely
  • FOMO-driven position sizing
Detection Checklist
  • Financial media beginning to cover regularly
  • Financial media beginning to cover regularly
  • Analysts publishing price targets
  • Analysts publishing price targets
  • Retail investors starting to notice
  • Retail investors starting to notice
  • Compelling narrative gaining traction
  • Compelling narrative gaining traction
  • Valuations stretching but still defensible
  • Valuations stretching but still defensible
  • First wave of skeptics emerging
  • First wave of skeptics emerging
  • Trading volumes increasing noticeably
  • Trading volumes increasing noticeably